I come from central UP, the place where politics flows in the air. Where one would be regularly greeted by someone in Khaki half pants with a loud ‘Jai shree Ram’, the same three words if used in any other part of the country, may spark scepticism and doubts. Every nook and corner forms an arena for political discourse. The ‘hawa’, ‘mahaul’ and ‘sambhavna’ are discussed, everyone is an expert and everyone is an amateur. This a UP election analysis from a resident’s point of view, one who has spent his childhood and youth in the most populated city of Uttar Pradesh,
If I had to choose one word that describes the elections in UP, whether I may like it or not is ‘caste’. Calculations are made and equations are derived, voters are lured and promises are made, feet-touching and leg-pulling are a common affair. What ends up, more often than not, is a mess, unclear mandate, fight for the throne and horse trading. The article is not about how the elections are held and I may not use it to my luxury to digress from the topic. This is about what I see coming as someone who has witnessed numerous elections and issues ranging from ‘Mandir’ to ‘Manuwaad’.
To keep it simple, I see a BJP-BSP alliance as the most possible combination at the moment. BSP seems to loose but that is one place where SP cannot score, they themselves bring a lot of corrupt crowd to the chairs. If a normal resident is asked to choose among the two strong players on the grounds of corruption, Mayawati is the natural choice for obvious reasons. She may self-obsessed and wasted a huge sum on stupid statues, but she handles administration with an iron hand while Mulayam Singh’s regime allegedly bring ‘Gunda Raj’. BSP also holds an added advantage of a non-mobile Dalit vote bank. ‘Hathi’ remains the unanimous choice of the Dalit community and ‘Behenji’ the undisputed leader. If she can dent the traditional ‘Backwards’ vote bank of SP she’ll undoubtedly sail through and then a support from the BJP or Congress may well give her a consecutive second term.
Akhilesh Yadav the natural heir to the legacy of Mulayam Singh, is working day in and day out to propel the party to the to the top. The polarisation of Muslim votes tried on the grounds of appeal for re-investigation of the Batala House killings and the proposed reservation for Muslims may not appease the Muslim community but will surely not go well with the Hindu voters, more so with the backward classes who fear that they may have to shed a plum share from their quota. Moreover the Muslim community seems disillusioned with Mulayam Singh after his appearance with Kalyan Singh, and Rahul Gandhi’s consistent efforts will certainly work to thin the vote share from the community. The entry of players like the Peace Party will certainly harm the prospects of the Yadav clan.
BJP does not have great hopes and are not expected to do well in the scenario. They can bank upon the traditional Upper caste vote bank and hope to gain a respectable number. Without a clear Chief Minister candidate and debacle like the induction of tainted Kushwaha leave BJP in a severe trouble. The only hope that remains for BJP is that it may play key maker for Mayawati.
Congress even after all the hard work of Rahul Gandhi, and the rhetoric of Muslim wooing looks vulnerable to say the least. It may eat into the vote share of the SP but may not boots its own count. It is apparently fighting for the third place with the BJP.
There are just two thing that we can do, wait and speculate. What is on the minds of the voters and what goes into the EVMs, only the future holds.
